Black smoke again on morning of conclave's 2nd day signals no pope elected yet

Retired Cardinal Raniero Cantalamessa, 90, delivered a meditation prior to the initial round of voting. Cantalamessa's reflection, which was reportedly close to an hour — combined with the large number of cardinal-electors — resulted in a much lengthier wait time for the initial round of balloting.  

"The second day is when the voting gets real and everything moves fast. The first vote was a big sort, a shakeout where you finally see what the electors are really thinking, not just what they are saying," veteran Vatican journalist David Gibson told the National Catholic Reporter. "Then it gets real." 

"If someone emerges as a front runner you start to think, 'Do I really want to see him as pope?' And maybe you shift to another candidate who you may not initially have backed but who you could live with or even love as pope," said Gibson, who serves as the director of Fordham University's Center for Religion and Culture.

"In the second and third rounds things really coalesce," he explained. "Cardinal electors are generally strategic voters not dead enders."

Thousands of pilgrims again returned to St. Peter's Square, where all eyes remained fixed on the rooftop chimney, along with the massive jumbotrons in the piazza with a live camera feed on the tiny vent. 

No new pope was expected to be elected on the early rounds of voting during a contest with a range of front-runners and few clues as to who might emerge as the next pontiff. The earliest predictions for a successful election for a new pope have hinted at Thursday evening (May 8) after five ballots or on Friday morning (May 9).  

Francis died April 21 at age 88. He was elected March 13, 2013, after five votes in a two-day conclave. His predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, was elected April 19, 2005, after four votes in two days. Benedict resigned as pope Feb. 11, 2013, at age 85; he died Dec. 31, 2022, at age 95.

With 133 eligible cardinals participating in this conclave, a candidate must receive a two-thirds majority vote — 89 — to be elected.  

Over nearly two weeks of pre-conclave meetings, cardinals held vigorous debates on the future of the Catholic Church at a moment where the 1.4 billion member institution is at a crossroads. The cardinals, whose chief job it is to elect a new pope, must now decide whether to continue the late pope's reform agenda or to initiate a course correction. 

The cardinals will now have lunch together inside the Vatican guesthouses where they are residing and followed by a brief rest, they will return to the Sistine Chapel to resume voting. Until a new pope is elected, the cardinals are barred from having any communication with the outside world.